Assessment knowledge
Static-99R: Evidence, Meaning, and Responsible Use
Static-99R provides a group-based baseline estimate of relative risk for recorded sexual recidivism in a defined adult population. It is one part of a broader assessment—not a prediction of what one person will do.
Training and certificationView Static-99R training
The instrument
What Static-99R contributes
Static-99R is an actuarial tool that uses demographic and criminal-history information to position a person relative to comparison groups on recorded sexual recidivism. It can inform correctional, forensic, supervision, treatment-planning, and research decisions when the population, records, interpretive source, and decision question are appropriate.Static-99R organizes comparatively fixed historical and demographic information. Its static risk factors are not intended to measure intervention-related change or to operate as complete explanations of an individual outcome. It is also not designed to decide guilt or innocence, estimate every form of offending, or capture every dynamic, situational, cultural, health, treatment-related, or case-specific condition.Interpretation
What a result can—and cannot—mean
Relative standing
A result can describe how a score compares with scores in a reference distribution and how the observed rate for a score group compares with a defined reference group.Group estimates
An absolute estimate is an observed or modelled rate for a specified group, outcome, and follow-up period. It is not the personal probability of a future event.Limits
A result cannot determine whether one person will or will not reoffend, measure undetected offending, or replace a comprehensive and context-sensitive professional assessment.Population fit
Who is within the supporting evidence?
The core supported population is adults assigned male at birth who have at least one qualifying sexual offence and otherwise meet the official inclusion criteria. People assigned female at birth are outside the validation sampling frame. Most people younger than 18 at release and people without a qualifying offence are also outside, or generally outside, the supported population.These boundaries matter: a number can appear precise even when the person or decision does not fit the evidence base.Responsible communication
Why estimates differ
Observed recidivism rates vary with sample selection, jurisdiction, follow-up period, outcome definition, and factors not included in the tool. A measure can distinguish relatively higher- and lower-scoring groups while still overestimating or underestimating absolute rates in a new setting.Reports should identify the comparison group, outcome, follow-up period, uncertainty, and interpretive source instead of presenting a group estimate as personal certainty.Canadian evidence
Indigenous and White participants
One included Canadian study examined five high-risk or high-needs samples containing 653 Indigenous and 1,560 White adult men. Static-99R showed useful discrimination for recorded sexual recidivism in both groups, while calibration was not identical across groups and follow-up periods.The study combined First Nations, Métis, and Inuit participants; most Indigenous participants were from the Prairies; the samples were not routine correctional samples; and some analyses had few recidivism events. It does not establish cultural neutrality, equal calibration in every setting, or validity for every Indigenous person, community, or jurisdiction.Combination and context
Different tools answer different parts of the question
Static-99R and Static-2002R organize comparatively fixed historical and demographic information. They are not intended to measure change through treatment or another clinical process, and they are not interchangeable in every population or case.STABLE-2007 adds a different kind of measurement: more persistent factors that are potentially changeable and therefore may be reassessed. ACUTE-2007 focuses on recent expressions and circumstances. Formulation then considers how these different sources of information operate under the person’s conditions and context. This is a professional interpretive task—not an informal change to a static score or a mechanical combination formula.Comparatively fixed informationMore persistent changeable factorsRecent functioning and circumstances
Age and time
Age is not a stand-alone conclusion
Age at release contributes to the baseline estimate. The revision from Static-99 to Static-99R was intended to better reflect the relationship between age at release and recorded sexual recidivism, but age alone does not determine one person’s outcome.Residual risk
Community time requires careful modelling
Recorded sexual-recidivism risk generally declines as offence-free time in the community accumulates. The 2024 lifetime and residual-risk calculator uses a model-based process with explicit assumptions and careful time accounting. It should not be reduced to a rule of thumb or treated as literal lifetime certainty.Practical resource
Printable coding sheet
This ordinary static PDF supports professional documentation. It does not teach scoring and is not a substitute for the current official manual, interpretive materials, appropriate competency, or quality assurance.Static-99R coding form
For current instrument materials, consult SAARNA’s Static-99R resources and verify the date and status of each document before relying on it.
Consultation
Questions about responsible application?
Consultation may help with population fit, record sufficiency, version selection, comparison groups, communicating uncertainty, residual-risk analyses, quality assurance, policy, research design, or review of an existing assessment. Consultation is purpose-specific, does not guarantee a conclusion, and is not legal advice.Explore consultation and servicesFrequently asked questions