A dynamic measure of risk for sexual offending used with adult males.

What is it?

STABLE-2007 is a measure of 13 risk factors relevant for the treatment and supervision of adult males convicted of a sexually motivated offence.  It was first described in a government report (Hanson, Harris, Scott, & Helmus, 2007) and later as a journal article (Hanson, Harris, & Helmus, 2015).

Does STABLE-2007 Work?


Interrater reliability was reported using intraclass correlations (ICC) in four studies. The median ICC for STABLE-2007 was .90 (range = .38-.92) suggesting excellent agreement (Cicchetti, 1994).

Predictive Validity – Total Score

The fixed-effect weighted hazard ratio for sexual recidivism was 1.12 (95% CI = [1.10, 1.14], k = 12), meaning that there was a 12% increase in the likelihood of sexual recidivism for every unit increase on STABLE-2007. The AUC for the direct effect of STABLE-2007 predicting sexual recidivism was .674 (95% CI = [0.646, 0.702], k = 12, n = 6,845). This means that there was a 67% chance that a randomly selected sexual recidivist (n = 532) would have a higher score than a randomly selected nonrecidivist (n = 6,313). 

Incremental Validity

STABLE-2007 added incrementally to Static-99R in the prediction of sexual, non-sexually violent, violent + sexual, and any recidivism (fixed-effect hazard ratios ranging from 1.05 to 1.07. The fixed-effect weighted hazard ratios for STABLE-2007 and sexual recidivism was 1.07 (95% CI = [1.04, 1.09], k = 12), meaning that for every unit increase on STABLE-2007, there was a 7% increase in the likelihood of sexual recidivism, after controlling for Static-99R scores.

Predictive Validity – Items

All 13 items significantly predicted sexual recidivism using either a fixed- or random-effect model—exp(β) ranged from 1.34 to 1.83, k ranged from 3 to 9, N ranging from 2,024 to 6,005.




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